The Resurgence of the Post-Up: Why Basketball Analytics is Evolving

00:03So, 807 days ago, I discovered So, 807 days ago, I discovered this. this. this. Oh my god. Oh my god. Oh my god. I was wrong. I was wrong. I was wrong. >> Two does not equal two with an N+1, it >> Two does not equal two with an N+1, it >> Two does not equal two with an N+1, it equals three. equals three. equals three. >> Travel a two or three-point >> Travel a two or three-point >> Travel a two or three-point >> Three refs, two announcers, everybody >> Three refs, two announcers, everybody >> Three refs, two announcers, everybody stops. stops. stops. >> Phil Jackson did not take the bus. >> Phil Jackson did not take the bus. >> Phil Jackson did not take the bus. >> But he rode it.

00:23>> But he rode it. >> But he rode it. >> zone is not a 3-2. >> zone is not a 3-2. >> zone is not a 3-2. >> But it is five. >> But it is five. >> But it is five. >> it's just so obvious. Computer blue.

00:45Oh my god. Two Oh my god. Two is now more is now more is now more than three. And the post? than three. And the post? than three. And the post? Oh, it's back. Oh, it's back. Oh, it's back. You know the story by now. For years, You know the story by now. For years, You know the story by now. For years, the efficiency of the three was hidden the efficiency of the three was hidden the efficiency of the three was hidden in plain sight. Teams tossed up in plain sight. Teams tossed up in plain sight. Teams tossed up contested twos at an alarming rate. contested twos at an alarming rate. contested twos at an alarming rate. >> Westbrook, shot clock winding down,

01:03>> Westbrook, shot clock winding down, >> Westbrook, shot clock winding down, lines it up. lines it up. lines it up. Then Then Then Harden puts it up. started math-ing. As Harden puts it up. started math-ing. As Harden puts it up. started math-ing. As teams opted for more threes, lots of teams opted for more threes, lots of teams opted for more threes, lots of benefits occurred. More points, more benefits occurred. More points, more benefits occurred. More points, more offensive rebounds, more space. offensive rebounds, more space. offensive rebounds, more space. >> Percentage of threes taken rose to >> Percentage of threes taken rose to

01:17>> Percentage of threes taken rose to levels we had never seen before. With it levels we had never seen before. With it levels we had never seen before. With it came a casualty.

01:30Return to perimeter. Post ups plummeted, Return to perimeter. Post ups plummeted, and it's understandable why. With the and it's understandable why. With the and it's understandable why. With the help of some fourth grade competition help of some fourth grade competition help of some fourth grade competition and player tracking, the nerds revealed and player tracking, the nerds revealed and player tracking, the nerds revealed that the traditionalists were that the traditionalists were that the traditionalists were traditionally wrong. traditionally wrong. traditionally wrong. >> The most efficient way to play a sport >> The most efficient way to play a sport

01:41>> The most efficient way to play a sport is not necessarily the most pleasing. is not necessarily the most pleasing. is not necessarily the most pleasing. The post up was not a smart basketball The post up was not a smart basketball The post up was not a smart basketball play. In the paraphrased words of Rick play. In the paraphrased words of Rick play. In the paraphrased words of Rick Carlisle, it was worse than Rajon Rondo Carlisle, it was worse than Rajon Rondo Carlisle, it was worse than Rajon Rondo and Dennis Smith having a miscarriage. and Dennis Smith having a miscarriage. and Dennis Smith having a miscarriage. Okay, maybe be that harsh. But it was an

01:56Okay, maybe be that harsh. But it was an Okay, maybe be that harsh. But it was an inefficient piece of garbage inefficient piece of garbage inefficient piece of garbage that needed to be eradicated. If we could go back in time and [music] If we could go back in time and [music] never put ones back to the basket, we never put ones back to the basket, we never put ones back to the basket, we would. Out of bounds, New York ball. The nerds Out of bounds, New York ball. The nerds had won. And if we look at half court had won. And if we look at half court had won. And if we look at half court play types, the post up is at its lowest play types, the post up is at its lowest

02:18play types, the post up is at its lowest point ever. point ever. point ever. But, I noticed something recently. But, I noticed something recently. But, I noticed something recently. A ray of light. A ray of light. A ray of light. Points per possession has not only been Points per possession has not only been Points per possession has not only been rising for the two, rising for the two, rising for the two, it's surpassed the apocalyptic three. it's surpassed the apocalyptic three. it's surpassed the apocalyptic three. Along with it, a partner. Along with it, a partner. Along with it, a partner. A post up. A post up. A post up. Looking at just half court possessions

02:37Looking at just half court possessions Looking at just half court possessions [music] this season, isolation plays are [music] this season, isolation plays are [music] this season, isolation plays are run 18.4% of the time, scoring 99.7 run 18.4% of the time, scoring 99.7 run 18.4% of the time, scoring 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Hand off points per 100 possessions. Hand off points per 100 possessions. Hand off plays, 19.3% plays, 19.3% plays, 19.3% of the time, 97.8 points per 100 of the time, 97.8 points per 100 of the time, 97.8 points per 100 possessions. Pick and rolls, 62.5% possessions. Pick and rolls, 62.5%

02:54possessions. Pick and rolls, 62.5% of the time, 99.4 points. And post ups. of the time, 99.4 points. And post ups. of the time, 99.4 points. And post ups. 4% 105.8 points. If you don't have anything in points. If you don't have anything in transition, um transition, um transition, um >> [music] >> [music] >> [music] >> the post up is God's gift. It is the >> the post up is God's gift. It is the >> the post up is God's gift. It is the most efficient play type. And who is most efficient play type. And who is most efficient play type. And who is leading this charge?

03:24Nikola Jokic was averaging an absurd Nikola Jokic was averaging an absurd 1.28 points per possession on post ups 1.28 points per possession on post ups 1.28 points per possession on post ups before his injury this season. That's a before his injury this season. That's a before his injury this season. That's a better scoring rate than any team in the better scoring rate than any team in the better scoring rate than any team in the history of the NBA. history of the NBA. history of the NBA. >> One of the greatest basketball players >> One of the greatest basketball players >> One of the greatest basketball players of all time. Traditionalists are of all time. Traditionalists are

03:36of all time. Traditionalists are loosening their grips every time that loosening their grips every time that loosening their grips every time that sphere graces this Serbian's hands. sphere graces this Serbian's hands. sphere graces this Serbian's hands. Rope-a-doping his way in for bucket Rope-a-doping his way in for bucket Rope-a-doping his way in for bucket after bucket. after bucket. after bucket. >> Jokic is effing GOOD. WELL, WE KNOW >> Jokic is effing GOOD. WELL, WE KNOW >> Jokic is effing GOOD. WELL, WE KNOW THAT. THAT. THAT. BUT, here's the thing. BUT, here's the thing. BUT, here's the thing. Jokic is not alone. There's Giannis at Jokic is not alone. There's Giannis at

03:54Jokic is not alone. There's Giannis at 1.15 points per possession. Porzingis at 1.15 points per possession. Porzingis at 1.15 points per possession. Porzingis at 1.23. 1.23. 1.23. DeMar DeRozan, surprisingly a great post DeMar DeRozan, surprisingly a great post DeMar DeRozan, surprisingly a great post up player at 1.19. up player at 1.19. up player at 1.19. Even smaller guards like Luka, feasting Even smaller guards like Luka, feasting Even smaller guards like Luka, feasting on smaller players at 1.22. on smaller players at 1.22. on smaller players at 1.22. Outside of SGA, all these post up Outside of SGA, all these post up

04:12Outside of SGA, all these post up players are well above the top isolation players are well above the top isolation players are well above the top isolation scores and significantly above average scores and significantly above average scores and significantly above average half court offense. If we look over the half court offense. If we look over the half court offense. If we look over the last 10 years, the post up has emerged, last 10 years, the post up has emerged, last 10 years, the post up has emerged, or rather diverged from the other two or rather diverged from the other two or rather diverged from the other two primary play types. The efficiency of

04:30primary play types. The efficiency of primary play types. The efficiency of the post up has skyrocketed. This has the post up has skyrocketed. This has the post up has skyrocketed. This has helped boost the efficiency of twos to helped boost the efficiency of twos to helped boost the efficiency of twos to the point we haven't seen in decades, the point we haven't seen in decades, the point we haven't seen in decades, where two is now more than three. And where two is now more than three. And where two is now more than three. And when we add in the benefit of free when we add in the benefit of free when we add in the benefit of free throws, twos are crushing threes.

04:49throws, twos are crushing threes. throws, twos are crushing threes. What is causing this? What is causing this? What is causing this? Many players have been redefining their Many players have been redefining their Many players have been redefining their careers, which kindly brings up the careers, which kindly brings up the careers, which kindly brings up the sponsor for today's video, Southern New sponsor for today's video, Southern New sponsor for today's video, Southern New Hampshire University. Many people feel Hampshire University. Many people feel Hampshire University. Many people feel trapped in a career that is trapped in a career that is

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06:06while still working full-time, maybe this is the reminder that you needed this is the reminder that you needed this is the reminder that you needed [music] to stop waiting for the perfect [music] to stop waiting for the perfect [music] to stop waiting for the perfect moment and start investing in your moment and start investing in your moment and start investing in your future. Visit snhu.edu/ future. Visit snhu.edu/ future. Visit snhu.edu/ Michael McElwee to explore more than 200 Michael McElwee to explore more than 200 Michael McElwee to explore more than 200 degree programs and see what path might degree programs and see what path might

06:19degree programs and see what path might be right for you. [music] Thanks again be right for you. [music] Thanks again be right for you. [music] Thanks again to SNHU for sponsoring this video. to SNHU for sponsoring this video. to SNHU for sponsoring this video. Watching this play here is actually Watching this play here is actually Watching this play here is actually going to tell us a lot. Here we have going to tell us a lot. Here we have going to tell us a lot. Here we have Marc Gasol. He is leading the NBA at Marc Gasol. He is leading the NBA at Marc Gasol. He is leading the NBA at this point at roughly seven post ups a this point at roughly seven post ups a

06:32this point at roughly seven post ups a game. He's posting up another seven plus game. He's posting up another seven plus game. He's posting up another seven plus footer in Porzingis. footer in Porzingis. footer in Porzingis. >> [music] >> [music] >> [music] >> I mean no disrespect to Marc Gasol when >> I mean no disrespect to Marc Gasol when >> I mean no disrespect to Marc Gasol when I say this, but uh I say this, but uh I say this, but uh this was a terrible basketball play. this was a terrible basketball play. this was a terrible basketball play. Year ago, Gasol Year ago, Gasol Year ago, Gasol with a miss. Marc would score about 0.89 with a miss. Marc would score about 0.89

06:48with a miss. Marc would score about 0.89 points per possession on a post up. To points per possession on a post up. To points per possession on a post up. To compare that to Jokic, that's a 40 point compare that to Jokic, that's a 40 point compare that to Jokic, that's a 40 point blowout over the course of a game. blowout over the course of a game. blowout over the course of a game. >> You need to make some shots. Gasol's >> You need to make some shots. Gasol's >> You need to make some shots. Gasol's teammate, Zach Randolph, was another teammate, Zach Randolph, was another teammate, Zach Randolph, was another player praised as an elite presence. player praised as an elite presence.

07:01player praised as an elite presence. He was worse, 0.84 points per possession He was worse, 0.84 points per possession He was worse, 0.84 points per possession in the post. It's kind of fitting that in the post. It's kind of fitting that in the post. It's kind of fitting that the end of the post up era is largely the end of the post up era is largely the end of the post up era is largely recognized as the Grizzlies' loss to a recognized as the Grizzlies' loss to a recognized as the Grizzlies' loss to a much smaller, better shooting Warriors much smaller, better shooting Warriors much smaller, better shooting Warriors team.

07:24Hasta la vista, Grizzlies. But was Gasol Hasta la vista, Grizzlies. But was Gasol really that much worse than Jokic in the really that much worse than Jokic in the really that much worse than Jokic in the post? This is where numbers can be post? This is where numbers can be post? This is where numbers can be misleading. Notice who Gasol is posting misleading. Notice who Gasol is posting misleading. Notice who Gasol is posting up here, Porzingis, another seven plus up here, Porzingis, another seven plus up here, Porzingis, another seven plus footer. Porzingis isn't the best footer. Porzingis isn't the best footer. Porzingis isn't the best defender of all time, but he is still

07:38defender of all time, but he is still defender of all time, but he is still very tall and a center. It's not a very tall and a center. It's not a very tall and a center. It's not a full-blown mismatch like this play later full-blown mismatch like this play later full-blown mismatch like this play later in the game where Gasol takes it at in the game where Gasol takes it at in the game where Gasol takes it at Aaron Afflalo, a far smaller player, and Aaron Afflalo, a far smaller player, and Aaron Afflalo, a far smaller player, and gets fouled. gets fouled. gets fouled. >> Gasol draws the foul. >> Gasol draws the foul. >> Gasol draws the foul. In 2014, we'd see about eight normal

07:52In 2014, we'd see about eight normal In 2014, we'd see about eight normal post-ups without a mismatch in a game. post-ups without a mismatch in a game. post-ups without a mismatch in a game. Gasol was probably doing this a lot Gasol was probably doing this a lot Gasol was probably doing this a lot more. Back then, we'd also see about more. Back then, we'd also see about more. Back then, we'd also see about three mismatches. That is, about three three mismatches. That is, about three three mismatches. That is, about three mismatch post-ups a game. As time has mismatch post-ups a game. As time has mismatch post-ups a game. As time has gone on, though, there are actually

08:05gone on, though, there are actually gone on, though, there are actually slightly more mismatch post-ups. slightly more mismatch post-ups. slightly more mismatch post-ups. In other words, teams are a lot smarter In other words, teams are a lot smarter In other words, teams are a lot smarter now. They've largely eliminated most of now. They've largely eliminated most of now. They've largely eliminated most of the Gasol post-ups, or worse, um the the Gasol post-ups, or worse, um the the Gasol post-ups, or worse, um the [music] Tony Allen versus Aaron Afflalo. [music] Tony Allen versus Aaron Afflalo. [music] Tony Allen versus Aaron Afflalo. >> TA, no. Obviously, Jokic is better than

08:21>> TA, no. Obviously, Jokic is better than >> TA, no. Obviously, Jokic is better than Marc Gasol in the post. I don't think Marc Gasol in the post. I don't think Marc Gasol in the post. I don't think anyone's denying that. anyone's denying that. anyone's denying that. But, is he that much better? I don't But, is he that much better? I don't But, is he that much better? I don't think so. And I think the easy think so. And I think the easy think so. And I think the easy assumption here is, well, today's game assumption here is, well, today's game assumption here is, well, today's game is much smaller, leaner players, so the is much smaller, leaner players, so the

08:33is much smaller, leaner players, so the Goliaths that remain, such as Jokic, are Goliaths that remain, such as Jokic, are Goliaths that remain, such as Jokic, are feasting. feasting. feasting. That's not entirely the case. That's not entirely the case. That's not entirely the case. And that's where basketball can teach us And that's where basketball can teach us And that's where basketball can teach us a lot. I'll shoot. Bet you won't shoot. a lot. I'll shoot. Bet you won't shoot. a lot. I'll shoot. Bet you won't shoot. Let's imagine for a moment that you and Let's imagine for a moment that you and Let's imagine for a moment that you and I are playing one-on-one. We'll use my

08:48I are playing one-on-one. We'll use my I are playing one-on-one. We'll use my bitch-ass brother as a proxy. Shoot bitch-ass brother as a proxy. Shoot bitch-ass brother as a proxy. Shoot that, boy. I have two options on that, boy. I have two options on that, boy. I have two options on offense. I can drive for a two, offense. I can drive for a two, offense. I can drive for a two, or a three-pointer. or a three-pointer. or a three-pointer. Since my family is poor, my dad can't Since my family is poor, my dad can't Since my family is poor, my dad can't afford a shooting coach. afford a shooting coach. afford a shooting coach. >> live with that. And the result of that

09:01>> live with that. And the result of that >> live with that. And the result of that is my jumper's ass. my jumper's ass. When Shawn plays tight, I only hit about When Shawn plays tight, I only hit about When Shawn plays tight, I only hit about 20% of my threes. That's 0.6 points per 20% of my threes. That's 0.6 points per 20% of my threes. That's 0.6 points per possession. The math is pretty possession. The math is pretty possession. The math is pretty straightforward here. If I shoot a three straightforward here. If I shoot a three straightforward here. If I shoot a three at 20%, that's 0.6 points per at 20%, that's 0.6 points per

09:17at 20%, that's 0.6 points per possession. We'll place that in our possession. We'll place that in our possession. We'll place that in our upper right square of our matrix here. upper right square of our matrix here. upper right square of our matrix here. Again, this is for when the defense Again, this is for when the defense Again, this is for when the defense plays tight on me. I shoot threes very plays tight on me. I shoot threes very plays tight on me. I shoot threes very poorly because I have less space. poorly because I have less space. poorly because I have less space. However, since he is playing closer, However, since he is playing closer,

09:31However, since he is playing closer, he's more vulnerable to me getting by he's more vulnerable to me getting by he's more vulnerable to me getting by him and fouling. When Shawn plays tight, him and fouling. When Shawn plays tight, him and fouling. When Shawn plays tight, I score 60% of the time on my two-point I score 60% of the time on my two-point I score 60% of the time on my two-point shots. Again, the math is pretty simple shots. Again, the math is pretty simple shots. Again, the math is pretty simple here. 60% * 2 points 1.2 points. here. 60% * 2 points 1.2 points. here. 60% * 2 points 1.2 points. Option two. Option two. Option two. Shawn plays off me.

09:55In this scenario, I only hit about 30% In this scenario, I only hit about 30% of my threes because my father just of my threes because my father just of my threes because my father just didn't pull himself up by the bootstraps didn't pull himself up by the bootstraps didn't pull himself up by the bootstraps and pay seven grand for me to get a and pay seven grand for me to get a and pay seven grand for me to get a shooting coach when I was nine. It's shooting coach when I was nine. It's shooting coach when I was nine. It's also more difficult for me to score also more difficult for me to score also more difficult for me to score inside because, well, he's playing off

10:05inside because, well, he's playing off inside because, well, he's playing off me. I only score about 50% there. me. I only score about 50% there. me. I only score about 50% there. What play should you call? This is not a What play should you call? This is not a What play should you call? This is not a trick question. If you're the coach and trick question. If you're the coach and trick question. If you're the coach and you have two options for me, shoot or you have two options for me, shoot or you have two options for me, shoot or drive, drive, drive, you should tell me to drive every single you should tell me to drive every single

10:18you should tell me to drive every single time. Since I can't shoot, you should time. Since I can't shoot, you should time. Since I can't shoot, you should call for me to drive every single time. call for me to drive every single time. call for me to drive every single time. The defense will know this, so they will The defense will know this, so they will The defense will know this, so they will play off of me play off of me play off of me every every every single time. time. It's easy to see this visually. The red It's easy to see this visually. The red It's easy to see this visually. The red line here is shooting a two, and the line here is shooting a two, and the

10:37line here is shooting a two, and the blue line is shooting a three. Since blue line is shooting a three. Since blue line is shooting a three. Since shooting a two is always higher, that shooting a two is always higher, that shooting a two is always higher, that is, the red line is always above the is, the red line is always above the is, the red line is always above the blue line, the defense should never play blue line, the defense should never play blue line, the defense should never play me tight. They should play tight 0% of me tight. They should play tight 0% of me tight. They should play tight 0% of the time. By doing so, they ensure the the time. By doing so, they ensure the

10:51the time. By doing so, they ensure the least amount of points per possession. 1 least amount of points per possession. 1 least amount of points per possession. 1 points per possession. points per possession. points per possession. Now, let's say my dad gets a job in big Now, let's say my dad gets a job in big Now, let's say my dad gets a job in big tech. All right. tech. All right. tech. All right. As those stock options vest, he sends me As those stock options vest, he sends me As those stock options vest, he sends me to the lab to do some heavy light work. to the lab to do some heavy light work. to the lab to do some heavy light work. A 23-year-old former JUCO sniper is

11:06A 23-year-old former JUCO sniper is A 23-year-old former JUCO sniper is hired. Here. hired. Here. hired. Here. Here. Verbal abuse and over-specialization Verbal abuse and over-specialization aside, I improve. See? See? Now, Now, Now, my brother pays the price. What do we do my brother pays the price. What do we do my brother pays the price. What do we do then? Oh, here we go. He can't shoot.

11:34I shoot 45% from three when he plays I shoot 45% from three when he plays off. That's 1.35 points per possession. off. That's 1.35 points per possession. off. That's 1.35 points per possession. Not that anybody cares, but I still Not that anybody cares, but I still Not that anybody cares, but I still score 50% of the time inside on twos. score 50% of the time inside on twos. score 50% of the time inside on twos. That's one point per possession. When That's one point per possession. When That's one point per possession. When Shawn plays tight, I have improved. I Shawn plays tight, I have improved. I Shawn plays tight, I have improved. I shoot 35% from three. That's 1.05 points

11:49shoot 35% from three. That's 1.05 points shoot 35% from three. That's 1.05 points per possession. And still 60% inside on per possession. And still 60% inside on per possession. And still 60% inside on twos. twos. twos. Now, what play do you call, coach? Now, what play do you call, coach? Now, what play do you call, coach? This is a little more challenging of a This is a little more challenging of a This is a little more challenging of a problem. My dad's promotion makes things problem. My dad's promotion makes things problem. My dad's promotion makes things a little less straightforward. But a little less straightforward. But

12:02a little less straightforward. But again, we can graph this. Here's what again, we can graph this. Here's what again, we can graph this. Here's what our graph looked like in scenario one our graph looked like in scenario one our graph looked like in scenario one when I couldn't shoot. when I couldn't shoot. when I couldn't shoot. Here's what it looks like now that I can Here's what it looks like now that I can Here's what it looks like now that I can shoot. If the defender keeps their same shoot. If the defender keeps their same shoot. If the defender keeps their same strategy and plays off 100% of the time, strategy and plays off 100% of the time,

12:14strategy and plays off 100% of the time, it's simple. I will adapt and punish it's simple. I will adapt and punish it's simple. I will adapt and punish them by shooting a three 100% of the them by shooting a three 100% of the them by shooting a three 100% of the time. That results in 1.35 points per time. That results in 1.35 points per time. That results in 1.35 points per possession. possession. possession. That is a losing strategy for our That is a losing strategy for our That is a losing strategy for our defense. defense. defense. After getting torched and accused of After getting torched and accused of After getting torched and accused of laziness, Shawn starts chesting me up a

12:28laziness, Shawn starts chesting me up a laziness, Shawn starts chesting me up a little bit more often. Eventually, there little bit more often. Eventually, there little bit more often. Eventually, there is an equilibrium. 70% tight, 30% off. is an equilibrium. 70% tight, 30% off. is an equilibrium. 70% tight, 30% off. This means if both teams are playing This means if both teams are playing This means if both teams are playing rationally, eventually the defense will rationally, eventually the defense will rationally, eventually the defense will play tight 70% of the time and off 30% play tight 70% of the time and off 30%

12:42play tight 70% of the time and off 30% of the time. At this equilibrium, my of the time. At this equilibrium, my of the time. At this equilibrium, my points per possession is 1.14. points per possession is 1.14. points per possession is 1.14. My offense has leapt significantly, My offense has leapt significantly, My offense has leapt significantly, which any of us would have guessed. I which any of us would have guessed. I which any of us would have guessed. I mean, more versatile you are, the more mean, more versatile you are, the more mean, more versatile you are, the more difficult you are to defend. But notice difficult you are to defend. But notice

12:55difficult you are to defend. But notice what happened to the two. Remember as I what happened to the two. Remember as I what happened to the two. Remember as I mentioned, we aren't a better two-point mentioned, we aren't a better two-point mentioned, we aren't a better two-point shooter. Yet our two-point efficiency shooter. Yet our two-point efficiency shooter. Yet our two-point efficiency has jumped from one to 1.14. has jumped from one to 1.14. has jumped from one to 1.14. The improvement of the three didn't just The improvement of the three didn't just The improvement of the three didn't just improve our three. It massively improved improve our three. It massively improved

13:11improve our three. It massively improved our two. our two. our two. This is what's happening in basketball This is what's happening in basketball This is what's happening in basketball right now. For the first time in right now. For the first time in right now. For the first time in history, at least since we invented the history, at least since we invented the history, at least since we invented the three-pointer, we are at an equilibrium. three-pointer, we are at an equilibrium. three-pointer, we are at an equilibrium. Basketball, of course, is more complex Basketball, of course, is more complex Basketball, of course, is more complex than our example that we're using here.

13:26than our example that we're using here. than our example that we're using here. But we can swap our defensive decision But we can swap our defensive decision But we can swap our defensive decision with shooting a three and a post up. with shooting a three and a post up. with shooting a three and a post up. When you're off the ball defensively, When you're off the ball defensively, When you're off the ball defensively, the way you can guard a post up is very the way you can guard a post up is very the way you can guard a post up is very much in opposition. You can choose to much in opposition. You can choose to much in opposition. You can choose to help down and dig more often and

13:40help down and dig more often and help down and dig more often and decrease the post up efficiency or stay decrease the post up efficiency or stay decrease the post up efficiency or stay glued to your man and let that boy cook glued to your man and let that boy cook glued to your man and let that boy cook in the post. This time more in the post. This time more in the post. This time more significantly because the defense is significantly because the defense is significantly because the defense is really in a tough spot. really in a tough spot. really in a tough spot. This increases the scoring efficiency of This increases the scoring efficiency of

13:52This increases the scoring efficiency of our post ups and that makes sense. The our post ups and that makes sense. The our post ups and that makes sense. The post up is more of a one-on-one game post up is more of a one-on-one game post up is more of a one-on-one game today because defenses are more worried today because defenses are more worried today because defenses are more worried about guarding the three. They don't about guarding the three. They don't about guarding the three. They don't help as much. Another example would be, help as much. Another example would be, help as much. Another example would be, who do you play? A quicker, more slender

14:06who do you play? A quicker, more slender who do you play? A quicker, more slender player is better suited to guard the player is better suited to guard the player is better suited to guard the perimeter and thus guard the three, perimeter and thus guard the three, perimeter and thus guard the three, whereas a larger, stronger player whereas a larger, stronger player whereas a larger, stronger player probably better suited to guard the two, probably better suited to guard the two, probably better suited to guard the two, at least talking averages here. Thus, at least talking averages here. Thus, at least talking averages here. Thus, teams have had to play slender, quicker

14:20teams have had to play slender, quicker teams have had to play slender, quicker wings in post in order to match up wings in post in order to match up wings in post in order to match up better with the three. And that makes it better with the three. And that makes it better with the three. And that makes it easier for the two. This is where the easier for the two. This is where the easier for the two. This is where the two-point shot improves with help two-point shot improves with help two-point shot improves with help delayed or removed. Suddenly shots at delayed or removed. Suddenly shots at delayed or removed. Suddenly shots at the rim or a post up, it's less

14:35the rim or a post up, it's less the rim or a post up, it's less congested, it's less contested, and thus congested, it's less contested, and thus congested, it's less contested, and thus it is more efficient. On the macro it is more efficient. On the macro it is more efficient. On the macro level, the best three-point shooting level, the best three-point shooting level, the best three-point shooting teams are often very good two-point teams are often very good two-point teams are often very good two-point shooting teams and the fallout of this shooting teams and the fallout of this shooting teams and the fallout of this is changing player archetypes. This has

14:50is changing player archetypes. This has is changing player archetypes. This has happened in a myriad of ways. Slimmer happened in a myriad of ways. Slimmer happened in a myriad of ways. Slimmer and faster players are more desirable and faster players are more desirable and faster players are more desirable because there is a premium to being able because there is a premium to being able because there is a premium to being able to guard the three. Zach Randolph is too to guard the three. Zach Randolph is too to guard the three. Zach Randolph is too one-dimensional. While he would score one-dimensional. While he would score

15:02one-dimensional. While he would score more often in today's game, he would not more often in today's game, he would not more often in today's game, he would not be able to guard the fours that stretch be able to guard the fours that stretch be able to guard the fours that stretch the floor. It would almost certainly be the floor. It would almost certainly be the floor. It would almost certainly be too big of a trade-off. Players like a too big of a trade-off. Players like a too big of a trade-off. Players like a Jaime Jaquez have replaced [music] him. Jaime Jaquez have replaced [music] him. Jaime Jaquez have replaced [music] him. A shorter, but more versatile player who

15:16A shorter, but more versatile player who A shorter, but more versatile player who can guard more positions. my can guard more positions. my can guard more positions. my Jaquez. Jaquez. Jaquez. While offenses may be better than ever, While offenses may be better than ever, While offenses may be better than ever, this does not mean that they are playing this does not mean that they are playing this does not mean that they are playing optimally. As a brief recap, here are optimally. As a brief recap, here are optimally. As a brief recap, here are the half court plays ranked. Now, here the half court plays ranked. Now, here the half court plays ranked. Now, here is the frequency.

15:31is the frequency. is the frequency. Could there be more room for post ups in Could there be more room for post ups in Could there be more room for post ups in today's game? today's game? today's game? We need to consider first We need to consider first We need to consider first who is posting up. who is posting up. who is posting up. Okay, so the best way to explain this is Okay, so the best way to explain this is Okay, so the best way to explain this is actually actually actually with a different visual. Here's a heat with a different visual. Here's a heat with a different visual. Here's a heat map from about 20 years ago of where map from about 20 years ago of where

15:48map from about 20 years ago of where players took shots. The more heat, the players took shots. The more heat, the players took shots. The more heat, the more shots. This visual is probably more shots. This visual is probably more shots. This visual is probably ingrained in your memory by now, but ingrained in your memory by now, but ingrained in your memory by now, but let's take it a step further. As we let's take it a step further. As we let's take it a step further. As we progress through the years, more heat progress through the years, more heat progress through the years, more heat from three, more shots at the rim, and from three, more shots at the rim, and

16:00from three, more shots at the rim, and to death

16:06of the mid-range. of the mid-range. Paint is closed. Paint is closed. Paint is closed. But if we zoom in here to this little But if we zoom in here to this little But if we zoom in here to this little dot, Kevin Durant, he still shoots dot, Kevin Durant, he still shoots dot, Kevin Durant, he still shoots middy. And over here there's Devin middy. And over here there's Devin middy. And over here there's Devin Booker, another mid-range connoisseur. Booker, another mid-range connoisseur. Booker, another mid-range connoisseur. Over here we see, wow, it's last year's Over here we see, wow, it's last year's Over here we see, wow, it's last year's MVP, SGA. All these guys are taking a

16:22MVP, SGA. All these guys are taking a MVP, SGA. All these guys are taking a lot of mid-range shots still. lot of mid-range shots still. lot of mid-range shots still. So why are there only stars in this So why are there only stars in this So why are there only stars in this mid-range wasteland? mid-range wasteland? mid-range wasteland? Well, Well, Well, the ones who remain were chosen. As in, the ones who remain were chosen. As in, the ones who remain were chosen. As in, the bad mid-range shooters have largely the bad mid-range shooters have largely the bad mid-range shooters have largely been filtered out. Now, one could look been filtered out. Now, one could look

16:36been filtered out. Now, one could look at the sample and say, "Well, look at at the sample and say, "Well, look at at the sample and say, "Well, look at how good mid-range jump shooters are." how good mid-range jump shooters are." how good mid-range jump shooters are." But that would be short-sided. But that would be short-sided. But that would be short-sided. Why so few post ups? Why so few post ups? Why so few post ups? There is a selection bias. Remember, There is a selection bias. Remember, There is a selection bias. Remember, while the post up is far more efficient while the post up is far more efficient while the post up is far more efficient today, it's also far less frequent, and

16:53today, it's also far less frequent, and today, it's also far less frequent, and that's because, well, the bad ones have that's because, well, the bad ones have that's because, well, the bad ones have been removed. Sorry, Tony, but we're not been removed. Sorry, Tony, but we're not been removed. Sorry, Tony, but we're not seeing as many post ups like you. Now, seeing as many post ups like you. Now, seeing as many post ups like you. Now, this is not happened to the same extent this is not happened to the same extent this is not happened to the same extent with isolation and pick and rolls. For with isolation and pick and rolls. For

17:04with isolation and pick and rolls. For example, there are 50 players attempting example, there are 50 players attempting example, there are 50 players attempting at least two isolations a game. There at least two isolations a game. There at least two isolations a game. There are only 19 for post ups. Teams are far are only 19 for post ups. Teams are far are only 19 for post ups. Teams are far more selective when it comes to who gets more selective when it comes to who gets more selective when it comes to who gets to post up in comparison to who's given to post up in comparison to who's given to post up in comparison to who's given the green light to isolate. Also, there

17:20the green light to isolate. Also, there the green light to isolate. Also, there are moments where isolation needs to are moments where isolation needs to are moments where isolation needs to happen. You might only have 7 to 8 happen. You might only have 7 to 8 happen. You might only have 7 to 8 seconds left on the shot clock and you seconds left on the shot clock and you seconds left on the shot clock and you have to Now, you got to get a shot here. have to Now, you got to get a shot here. have to Now, you got to get a shot here. >> Final seconds. BRYANT FOR THE WIN. BANG! >> Final seconds. BRYANT FOR THE WIN. BANG!

17:32>> Final seconds. BRYANT FOR THE WIN. BANG! SO, have we been fooled by randomness SO, have we been fooled by randomness SO, have we been fooled by randomness here? Is the post up still very much here? Is the post up still very much here? Is the post up still very much dead? Not entirely. Um let's go back to dead? Not entirely. Um let's go back to dead? Not entirely. Um let's go back to Triple J here. Jaime is a unique player Triple J here. Jaime is a unique player Triple J here. Jaime is a unique player who has little to [music] do with the who has little to [music] do with the who has little to [music] do with the modern game. He's terrible from behind modern game. He's terrible from behind

17:47modern game. He's terrible from behind the arc. He's too small to be a true the arc. He's too small to be a true the arc. He's too small to be a true four and lacks the handle to be a true four and lacks the handle to be a true four and lacks the handle to be a true wing or guard. Actually, all that made wing or guard. Actually, all that made wing or guard. Actually, all that made him a great fit for Eric Spoelstra. him a great fit for Eric Spoelstra. him a great fit for Eric Spoelstra. However, Jaime has been torching players However, Jaime has been torching players However, Jaime has been torching players in one area. in one area. in one area. The paint. Jaime Highway,

18:03The paint. Jaime Highway, The paint. Jaime Highway, open. open. open. Jaime is scoring at 69% in the Jaime is scoring at 69% in the Jaime is scoring at 69% in the restricted area. That's significantly restricted area. That's significantly restricted area. That's significantly better than the NBA average and he's better than the NBA average and he's better than the NBA average and he's scoring 1.06 points per possession in scoring 1.06 points per possession in scoring 1.06 points per possession in the post. Miami's offense is playing a the post. Miami's offense is playing a the post. Miami's offense is playing a little different, but could they little different, but could they

18:16little different, but could they consider going through him in the post a consider going through him in the post a consider going through him in the post a little bit more? Another example here little bit more? Another example here little bit more? Another example here might be Franz Wagner. This is another might be Franz Wagner. This is another might be Franz Wagner. This is another player who appears to be significantly player who appears to be significantly player who appears to be significantly more efficient in the post than as a more efficient in the post than as a more efficient in the post than as a pick and roll or isolation player. Yet, pick and roll or isolation player. Yet,

18:28pick and roll or isolation player. Yet, they are going to him far less often in they are going to him far less often in they are going to him far less often in the post than the other two play the post than the other two play the post than the other two play options. They only post him up about 1 options. They only post him up about 1 options. They only post him up about 1 and 1/2 times a game, whereas they run and 1/2 times a game, whereas they run and 1/2 times a game, whereas they run isolation and pick and roll plays far isolation and pick and roll plays far isolation and pick and roll plays far more frequently. There are several guys more frequently. There are several guys

18:40more frequently. There are several guys that fit this archetype. DeMar DeRozan that fit this archetype. DeMar DeRozan that fit this archetype. DeMar DeRozan has proven over multiple years that he has proven over multiple years that he has proven over multiple years that he is lethal in the post. Yet, he finds is lethal in the post. Yet, he finds is lethal in the post. Yet, he finds himself running pick and rolls and himself running pick and rolls and himself running pick and rolls and isolations far more [music] frequently. isolations far more [music] frequently. isolations far more [music] frequently. Again, part of this isolation game you Again, part of this isolation game you

18:53Again, part of this isolation game you can't avoid, but a player like DeMar has can't avoid, but a player like DeMar has can't avoid, but a player like DeMar has been the primary offensive weapon for been the primary offensive weapon for been the primary offensive weapon for years now on his team. Thus, he has years now on his team. Thus, he has years now on his team. Thus, he has volume and if we look over the last 5 volume and if we look over the last 5 volume and if we look over the last 5 years, he has been significantly better years, he has been significantly better years, he has been significantly better posting up versus isolation. Now, I posting up versus isolation. Now, I

19:07posting up versus isolation. Now, I don't think there's just opportunity for don't think there's just opportunity for don't think there's just opportunity for players that have established post players that have established post players that have established post games. Think of Jaime. This is a guy who games. Think of Jaime. This is a guy who games. Think of Jaime. This is a guy who hasn't posted up once this year, but he hasn't posted up once this year, but he hasn't posted up once this year, but he has a great two-foot game. He has touch, has a great two-foot game. He has touch, has a great two-foot game. He has touch, he has size, he's significantly stronger

19:21he has size, he's significantly stronger he has size, he's significantly stronger than most guards, but he never does it. than most guards, but he never does it. than most guards, but he never does it. Instead, he's running about four to five Instead, he's running about four to five Instead, he's running about four to five ball screens and isolation plays a game ball screens and isolation plays a game ball screens and isolation plays a game where he's not particularly efficient. where he's not particularly efficient. where he's not particularly efficient. It might be worth considering building It might be worth considering building

19:30It might be worth considering building out the post game, which takes us back out the post game, which takes us back out the post game, which takes us back to our equilibrium and minimax problem. to our equilibrium and minimax problem. to our equilibrium and minimax problem. If he built out his post game a little If he built out his post game a little If he built out his post game a little bit more, that would probably force bit more, that would probably force bit more, that would probably force teams to have to play the larger players teams to have to play the larger players teams to have to play the larger players on him, which probably opens up his on him, which probably opens up his

19:42on him, which probably opens up his three-point shot a little bit more. Yes, three-point shot a little bit more. Yes, three-point shot a little bit more. Yes, this is much easier said than done. I'm this is much easier said than done. I'm this is much easier said than done. I'm assuming that he can build out this post assuming that he can build out this post assuming that he can build out this post game, but we've seen other players have game, but we've seen other players have game, but we've seen other players have crazier transformations, and I don't crazier transformations, and I don't crazier transformations, and I don't ever see Conner Hawkez becoming elite

19:54ever see Conner Hawkez becoming elite ever see Conner Hawkez becoming elite isolation players. isolation players. isolation players. You know what's funny? I was thinking You know what's funny? I was thinking You know what's funny? I was thinking about this the other day. Um, about this the other day. Um, about this the other day. Um, the post up is isolation. You are giving the post up is isolation. You are giving the post up is isolation. You are giving it to a player in a set space. That it to a player in a set space. That it to a player in a set space. That player is then supposed to go one-on-one player is then supposed to go one-on-one

20:10player is then supposed to go one-on-one and try to score. and try to score. and try to score. Yet, the post up is viewed as the sacred Yet, the post up is viewed as the sacred Yet, the post up is viewed as the sacred action, while isolation action, while isolation action, while isolation is sacrilegious. is sacrilegious. is sacrilegious. I think the two have a lot more I think the two have a lot more I think the two have a lot more similarities than differences. similarities than differences. similarities than differences. In fact, one thing the player tracking In fact, one thing the player tracking In fact, one thing the player tracking company shared with me, it's difficult

20:27company shared with me, it's difficult company shared with me, it's difficult for the software to tell when a play is for the software to tell when a play is for the software to tell when a play is an isolation versus a post up. This play an isolation versus a post up. This play an isolation versus a post up. This play here with Sengun, for example, it's here with Sengun, for example, it's here with Sengun, for example, it's probably coded as an isolation, but to probably coded as an isolation, but to probably coded as an isolation, but to you and I, it looks more like a post up. you and I, it looks more like a post up.

20:41you and I, it looks more like a post up. With the way the game has evolved, I With the way the game has evolved, I With the way the game has evolved, I don't think it's out of question that we don't think it's out of question that we don't think it's out of question that we will see more of this in the future. And will see more of this in the future. And will see more of this in the future. And to be clear, I'm not calling for a to be clear, I'm not calling for a to be clear, I'm not calling for a full-blown post up revolution, but 5 full-blown post up revolution, but 5 full-blown post up revolution, but 5 years from now, you might see a few more years from now, you might see a few more

20:55years from now, you might see a few more big-bodied playmakers. big-bodied playmakers. big-bodied playmakers. Guys like Cam Boozer. Guys like Cam Boozer. Guys like Cam Boozer. More two than three.

21:07Perhaps the biggest surprise in all of Perhaps the biggest surprise in all of this this this how long it took to realize Tony Allen how long it took to realize Tony Allen how long it took to realize Tony Allen shouldn't be posting up. shouldn't be posting up. shouldn't be posting up. One of the biggest ironies I think that One of the biggest ironies I think that One of the biggest ironies I think that comes with analytics is it continually comes with analytics is it continually comes with analytics is it continually reminds us that we need to be more reminds us that we need to be more reminds us that we need to be more aggressive. We need to be going for it

21:22aggressive. We need to be going for it aggressive. We need to be going for it more on fourth down. We should be more on fourth down. We should be more on fourth down. We should be passing the ball more. We should be passing the ball more. We should be passing the ball more. We should be shooting more threes. shooting more threes. shooting more threes. But as we step into the efficiency But as we step into the efficiency But as we step into the efficiency revolution revolution revolution a new opportunity is presenting itself a new opportunity is presenting itself a new opportunity is presenting itself and this is not unlike most domains. If and this is not unlike most domains. If

21:38and this is not unlike most domains. If you hyper fixate on one solution, one you hyper fixate on one solution, one you hyper fixate on one solution, one angle angle angle eventually a T-800 will come for you. As eventually a T-800 will come for you. As eventually a T-800 will come for you. As they say there's a time to explore and they say there's a time to explore and they say there's a time to explore and exploit and well there might not be a exploit and well there might not be a exploit and well there might not be a better time to explore than right now. I better time to explore than right now. I better time to explore than right now. I don't think that basketball has been

21:56don't think that basketball has been don't think that basketball has been solved, it's just been standardized and solved, it's just been standardized and solved, it's just been standardized and that could provide an opportunity. Look that could provide an opportunity. Look that could provide an opportunity. Look at Arizona, they shoot less threes than at Arizona, they shoot less threes than at Arizona, they shoot less threes than any other high major program in college any other high major program in college any other high major program in college basketball basketball basketball >> [music] >> [music] >> [music] >> and they're one of the best. Now will

22:09>> and they're one of the best. Now will >> and they're one of the best. Now will there ever be a revolution as there ever be a revolution as there ever be a revolution as significant as the three-point significant as the three-point significant as the three-point revolution? I don't think so. revolution? I don't think so. revolution? I don't think so. But that doesn't mean that the edge has But that doesn't mean that the edge has But that doesn't mean that the edge has disappeared. It's just moved and it disappeared. It's just moved and it disappeared. It's just moved and it might be moving more inside. might be moving more inside.

22:24might be moving more inside. Hope you enjoyed this video. Make sure Hope you enjoyed this video. Make sure Hope you enjoyed this video. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't and take to subscribe if you haven't and take to subscribe if you haven't and take care.